Bad news follows bad news in the market for memory used in our PCs and smartphones.
Just a few days ago, we were talking about the increasing importance of HBM memory - and its rising price - and now we learn from the TrendForce institute, relayed by TechPowerUp, that inflation on this type of component will also affect more "traditional" memories such as DRAM or NAND. In fact, for the latter, the increase has already begun, and the almost miraculous period of summer 2023 is well and truly over. In fact, it was during July, August and even September and October that wholesale prices for DRAM and NAND were at their lowest.
In fact, such prices had been dragging down our SSDs, smartphones and RAM arrays before the turning point of autumn 2023 began to change things. That said, it was in early 2024 that TrendForce's predictions began to materialize more clearly. In January, TrendForce took the opportunity to announce a relatively gloomy first half of 2024: its specialists were forecasting an increase of 3-8% for DRAM and 13-18% for NAND in 2024. Unfortunately, TrendForce has since largely revised these forecasts, and not at all in our direction.
DRAM and NAND price estimates, May 2024 © TechPowerUp
The first alert was the earthquake recorded in Taiwan on April 3. Admittedly, the earthquake did not disrupt production lines, but it was enough to lead to handsome increases in contracts signed shortly afterwards. That said, TrendForce insists on an underlying trend, and even if minor technical concerns linked to the earthquake are mentioned, it is mainly the desire to maintain high margins and anticipation of the expected strong demand in the art intelligence market that is driving prices. In fact, TrendForce now expects an increase of 13% to 18% for DRAM and 15% to 20% for NAND. If this increase is not yet fully reflected in European retail prices, it's only a matter of time.
