For at least the whole of the first half of 2024, prices should continue to rise for components associated with NAND memory.
In the first half of 2023, we saw a significant drop in wholesale prices for NAND memory, the flash used in many products such as smartphones and SSDs. This notable drop had no repercussions on the cost of smartphones, but as far as SSDs were concerned, it resulted in a tangible drop in the cost per gigabyte, making 1TB and even 2TB models much more affordable. Alas, we had to take advantage while it lasted, because - with the exception of a few specific promotions - since autumn, we've seen a reversal in the trend.
TrendForce had already warned at the end of last summer that NAND chips would rapidly become more expensive, and that SSDs would logically follow. Over the course of November/December, this sad prediction materialized, and the start of 2024 even marks an acceleration of this trend. For once, there's no question of natural disasters, pandemics or global geopolitical events to explain the situation. No, there seems to be no doubt who is responsible, and it's a very human one: Samsung.
Estimated NAND and DRAM increases © TrendForce
As the leading producer of NAND (30% market share), Samsung has consciously decided to reduce its NAND production and, quoted by Computer Base, South Korean media outlet The Chosun Daily explains that Samsung's NAND production should soon be only 50% of what it was at its peak in 2023. Samsung is said to be followed by SK Hynix, the world's second-largest NAND producer. With demand for this type of component trending slightly upwards, prices are rising, almost mechanically, and will no doubt continue to do so throughout the first and second quarters of 2024. If you have storage needs, you'd better be patient... or be prepared to break your piggy bank!
