The Intel dossier is hotter than ever at the start of 2025, when all options seem to be on the table.
Throughout 2024, Intel has been in the headlines, and 2025 could well get off to a similar start. A company that is more than fifty years old, a semiconductor giant and a major employer, Intel is experiencing more than just turbulence, and if the situation didn't seem too worrying throughout the early 2020s, that's no longer the case at all since the publication of catastrophic financial results in the second quarter of 2024. These results were further undermined by those published the following quarter, before a relative turnaround began at the end of the year.
However, this recovery is far from having calmed spirits and appetites. Since the beginning of the year, two major rumors have been circulating about the future of the American group. On the one hand, there is talk of a possible break-up, with the research and development part being taken over by the American Broadcom, while the production part - Intel Foundry, the most troubled entity - would fall into the lap of the Taiwanese TSMC. The problem is that this hypothesis clashes with the desire expressed by the Biden administration yesterday and by the Trump administration today to repatriate the production of strategic semiconductors to American soil. This led to another hypothesis being put forward: what if, instead of buying Intel Foundry, TSMC simply took a stake in it, albeit a significant one (rumoured to be around 20%), but far from a majority one?
TSMC to take a stake in Intel?
According to several specialists, this second hypothesis could have a certain echo in the problems raised by the first. Indeed, as Tom's Hardware explains, while AMD and Intel have been competitors for decades, they also share many technologies and, in order to make the x86 ecosystem viable, they have cross-licensing agreements: these allow each other to use certain "opposing" patents without the risk of going to court. This is what has enabled the x86 world to evolve for over 30 years now. But these agreements have their limits, and the takeover/merger of one of the two parties - at random, Intel - would render them null and void. AMD would then have to renegotiate them with Intel's future buyer, but it's hard to see AMD talking to Broadcom, which competes strongly with it in artificial intelligence... except perhaps by forming an alliance against NVIDIA?
For several days now, we haven't really heard much more about these two hypotheses for the partial dismantling/buyout of Intel. It could be that fears of rendering numerous agreements null and void have nipped these options in the bud. Or it may simply be that, given the complexity of the issues involved, the various parties are taking the time to put the finishing touches to everything. One thing is certain: the US semiconductor industry is at a turning point.
